Roger Federer’s Wimbledon Chances
There are plenty of favorites, but none more favored than the great Roger Federer. He’s the defending champion and was won the darn thing seven (7) times. Federer has always played his best tennis on the grass courts; winning 121 matches while only losing 17 (87.7% win), and taking home 13 titles.
The problem though, is that Roger is significantly older than many of the other favorites. At nearly 32 years of age, the body isn’t what it used to be. If you remember last year, Federer made no secret of having a sore back; he even wore a compression shirt to help increase circulation to his lower back. Yet, he managed to pull off the win over Andy Murray.
Roger Federer’s Wimbledon Draw
Federer’s Wimbledon draw is somewhat problematic, he’s got a challenging route to the final (if he gets there). He’s potentially going to face the “king slayer” Lukas Rosol; who you know took out Rafael Nadal in the second round at Wimbledon last year. He won’t face many threats until the fourth round where he is likely to meet Nicolas Almagro; though that threat ins’t all that bad as Roger owns him 5-0. Federer’s draw gets tougher in week two of Wimbledon.
The Nadal factor
Federer’s Wimbledon draw gets tricky in the quarterfinal where he could face Rafael Nadal (Rafalito). Their last meeting on grass was way back in 2008 where the two battled it out in an epic 5 set championship match with Rafalito walking away as the victor. Although, that was the only time Rafa has beat Roger on grass. Roger has won their other two meetings on grass (just so happens to be at Wimbledon).
This quarterfinal is a toss up. If I had to predict a Wimbledon quarterfinal between Nadal and Federer, I would have to give the edge to Federer. However, I would not put my money on it. It’s just too close at this moment. Nadal has had a pretty spectacular “return” after an “injury” layoff. Winning all but one tournament that he’s entered; yet having not played a grass tune-up. Where Federer, who’s had a dismal year in 2013, only reaching two tournament finals, and taking home one title. But, the good news is, that title came from Halle, a grass tournament, which he won with conviction. That’s where the edge comes into play.
Beyond the Wimbledon quarterfinals
If Roger Federer makes it past a tricky fourth round and quarterfinal, he just might have a better chance in the semifinals, where he could meet either Juan Martin Del Potro, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, or David Ferrer.
Fortunately for the Swiss, he’s never lost to either of those guys on grass. He owns most of them, especially Ferrer leading 14-0. No real threats there.
The final, if he were to reach it, he would like face Novak Djokovic. This could be epic. The two have only met on grass once, last year. Though, Federer made quick work of the Serb taking him out in 4 sets. I’m just saying, if Federer reaches the 2013 Wimbledon final and meets Djokovic, the chances are in his favor.
There’s no guarantee in tennis. Therefore, I can’t say that Federer will actually reach the finals, but his chances are about 50/50 right now. If he makes quick work in the early rounds to conserve energy for a likely quarterfinal match against Rafalito and come through, then his chances increase significantly.
The bottom line is, Roger Federer’s Wimbledon chances are good, but not great. But if he plays smart tennis and dictates, his chances increase.